Bonny Light Sells Below FG’s Benchmark As OPEC+ Hikes Productio
The Federal Government’s budget may be under threat as Nigeria’s crude blend, Bonny Light, currently sells below the national budget’s $75 per barrel benchmark.
Nigeria’s 2025 budget depends on an expected crude oil price of $75 per barrel, with production set at 2.06 million barrels per day.
Nigeria’s premium crude grades, Bonny Light, Forcados, and Qua Iboe, are somewhat protected from a global price drop, at around $71 per barrel; however, the overall decline in global prices diminishes this advantage.
OPEC+ recently agreed to expedite the release of an additional oil output, continuing its strategy of focusing on market share ahead of pricing.
The group on Sunday decided to increase oil output by 137,000 barrels per day starting next month.
It is the first portion of a larger supply tranche of 1.65 million barrels per day, which was intended to be held back until the end of the following year.
OPEC+ had previously committed to restoring 2.2 million barrels per day through a series of accelerated hikes between April and September, a year ahead of schedule. OPEC+ officials have previously offered a variety of justifications for opening the taps, ranging from trying to rein in overproducing nations like Kazakhstan to caving in to Trump’s demands for reduced prices and recovering sales volumes that were given up to competitors like US shale drillers.
Oil accounts for 80% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange and at least half of the government’s revenue.
Nigeria has actively lobbied OPEC for a higher quota, targeting 2 million barrels per day by 2027.
The country exceeded its 1.5 million barrel per day quota in June and July 2025, reflecting the success of policies aimed at encouraging investment and boosting production.
The development comes as Goldman Sachs believes Brent crude might drop to the low $50s per barrel levels next year.
OPEC+ stated that it would gradually return all or a portion of the 1.65 million barrels, without providing a timeframe or any increments.
The oil cartel emphasised that market conditions would determine the unwinding and that, if necessary, it could even halt or undo earlier hikes. In a private statement, delegates provided further information, stating that the supply would be added monthly until September of the following year.
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